The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.
Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a
monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a
predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth
and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.
| Metric | xgboost | cnn | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mae | 0.40 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| cor | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| KGE | 0.88 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| amplitude_mae | 0.85 | 0.64 | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| maximum_difference | 5.30 | 4.77 | 5.40 | 4.85 |
| sign_correlation | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| extreme_correlation | 0.59 | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| acf_mae | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail
extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at
the same time. We are using quant = .97